Visa & Mastercard Earnings Preview — July 29–31, 2025

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Hello and Welcome!
We're glad to have you with us for this week’s edition of your financial insights update. As Visa and Mastercard prepare to unveil their quarterly earnings, we’ve broken down the key points, timelines, and trends so you can quickly grasp what’s happening and why it matters.

In a Nutshell: Why This Week Matters

• Visa and Mastercard are expected to post higher profits, thanks to strong and steady consumer spending.

• Experts will be watching how people are spending—on daily needs vs. non-essentials—and whether upcoming tariffs led consumers to shop early.

• International travel—a high-profit area for both companies—is starting to show signs of pressure, especially in traffic between Canada and the U.S. and due to rising geopolitical tensions.

• With both companies eyeing stablecoin-linked products, and new regulation (the "Genius Act") in play, this could reshape their future roles in digital payments.

• Their stocks are doing well this year, beating the S&P 500 so far—so while expectations are high, even steady results could be well received.

Key Earnings Dates and Estimates

What We Know So Far

• Card spending is still rising, but not at breakneck speed:

  • Bank of America: +1.10%

  • JPMorgan Chase: +0.40%

• Consumers are still spending, both on essentials and nice-to-haves. Visa and Mastercard benefit from both, thanks to their global presence and category diversity.

• They’ve expanded beyond basic card processing with services like fraud detection, cybersecurity tools, and advanced data analytics, which provide new income streams.

Key Themes for the Earnings Calls

1. International Travel Trends
   Are fewer people crossing borders to shop or vacation—and how much does that hurt profits?

2. Tariff Worries
   Are consumers buying more now to beat future price hikes? That could make this quarter look better than it really is.

3. Crypto and Stablecoin Disruption
   Are Visa and Mastercard ready for a world where blockchain payments cut out the middleman?

4. Spending Controls
   Can they slow down expenses if things get tougher, and still hit profit targets?

Cross‑Border Business: Profitable, But Feeling the Pressure

Visa and Mastercard earn big on purchases made while traveling abroad. But:

• Fewer Canadians are visiting the U.S.

• Middle East tensions spiked in June

• Airfare and fuel costs may be reducing long-distance trips

• The shift to online travel bookings might soften the blow, but in-person travel is slowing

Stablecoins & New Regulations: Threat or Opportunity?

• Both networks are testing crypto-based payment systems

• The new Genius Act could encourage stablecoins to bypass card companies altogether

• But they could still play a big role: fraud prevention, identity, tokenization, compliance—those are areas where Visa and Mastercard still shine

What Might Happen Next (12-Month Outlook)

• Base case: Steady growth, solid profit margins, and modest stock gains

• Best case: Consumers keep spending, international travel picks up, and new digital services bring extra revenue

• Worst case: Travel drops, tariffs hit wallets, stablecoins disrupt faster than expected, and profit margins tighten

How They Stack Up (Stock Snapshot)

• Visa: +13% year-to-date

• Mastercard: +8% year-to-date

• S&P 500: +8.6% year-to-date

Quick Summary for Busy Readers

• Expected earnings: Visa $2.85, Mastercard $4.03

• Main focus: Travel volumes, tariffs, crypto plans, and cost controls

• Potential issue: Did consumers spend early just to avoid higher prices later?

• Forward-looking concern: Could crypto payments reshape their business faster than planned?

Need-to-Know Slide

Headline: “Visa & Mastercard: Solid Growth with Crypto and Travel Risks Ahead”

Highlights:

• Reports due July 29 (Visa) and July 31 (Mastercard)

• Consumers are still spending steadily

• Travel activity is uneven but remains a key profit driver

• Crypto regulation poses both a risk and an opportunity

• Stock reactions may depend heavily on forward guidance

Thank You!
Thanks for spending your time with us for this in-depth preview. We'll be back with analysis once the results are out. Until then, stay informed and invest smart!

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